The Dictionary of the Climate Debate (DCD)


dumb farmer hypothesis
Definition: A skeptic's term used to criticize the 2001 IPCC report's agricultural projections. These projections were based on agricultural forecast models that assumed that farmers would not modify their farming techniques in response to global warming — i.e., they assumed that the farmers were dumb.

The IPCC concluded that this projected obtusity would result in a 70% decrease in yields because the same crops would be grown in the same way in the same places no matter what changes occurred in the environment.

A dramatized dumb-farmer consequence scenario

In conjunction with the 2001 report, the IPCC commissioned this dramatization to demonstrate the kinds of conflicts that are expected to result from the dumb farmer's low agricultural yields.



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